"Forecasting is how you build the truth before it arrives"
Adam Kreek
Founder Build for Hard
- Date
The Power of Forecasting: Why Every Vancouver Island SME Needs a 12-Month Plan and a 4-Year Quadrennial Roadmap
posted in Business Coaching
Adam Kreek
Most small and medium-sized enterprises on Vancouver Island operate with one financial plan: “Let’s hope this year goes better than last year.”
Hope is not a strategy.
Forecasting is.
Financial forecasting is the most underused tool in the Canadian SME toolkit. When you do it properly—using both a 12-month rolling forecast and a 4-year quadrennial roadmap—your business becomes clearer, calmer, and significantly easier to run.
Owners feel less stressed.
Leaders make better decisions.
Teams gain focus.
And the business becomes far more resilient to the unpredictable nature of life on the Island.
Let’s break it down in a direct, grounded way.
Why Financial Forecasting Matters
Forecasting isn’t about guessing the future. It’s about pre-deciding how you’ll respond when the future happens.
In British Columbia—where supply chains get weird, hiring is competitive, and every third week feels like a statutory holiday—forecasting gives you stability in a naturally unstable environment.
A strong forecast gives you:
- Visibility: You know what’s coming before it hits.
- Confidence: You make decisions without the emotional whiplash.
- Discipline: You stop reacting and start steering.
- Freedom: You can invest strategically rather than scrambling.
Greg Crabtree says business owners must “run toward the truth.” Forecasting is how you build the truth before it arrives.
Part 1: The 12-Month Rolling Forecast
This is the operational tool. Your weekly, monthly, tactical runway.
A good 12-month forecast helps you:
- See cash issues before they become emergencies.
No more “We’re profitable—why is payroll painful?” surprises. - Adjust pricing, spending, and hiring early.
You avoid over-hiring, over-spending, and optimism-driven mistakes. - Plan inventory with intelligence.
On the Island, where supply shipments move on ferry schedules, accurate forecasting prevents stockouts and pileups. - Communicate direction clearly.
Your team stops guessing and starts acting with intention.
What goes into a strong 12-month forecast?
- Monthly revenue targets
- Seasonality adjustments (especially for tourism, construction, trades, manufacturing, HVAC, nurseries, and food production)
- Gross margin expectations
- Labour cost projections
- Operating expenses
- Cash flow timing (the part everyone forgets)
This becomes your business dashboard. If it’s built right, reviewing it becomes a 20-minute weekly ritual that keeps your company stable and your heart rate down.
Part 2: The 4-Year Quadrennial Forecast
This is your strategic tool.
The long arc.
The Olympic-style horizon that gives purpose to the grind.
Most SMEs only plan one year at a time. That’s how you end up building the business you can manage today instead of the business you want four years from now.
A quadrennial forecast changes your posture. It lets you:
- Clarify your future position in the market.
Where do you want to be in four years? Revenue? Profit? Impact? Team size? - Structure your major investments.
Equipment, land, buildings, hiring senior leaders, new product lines—these only make sense on a multi-year timeline. - Navigate the natural economic cycles in BC.
A four-year view helps you smooth out downturns, interest rate swings, and seasonal variability. - Build enterprise value with intent.
Banks, buyers, and investors love four-year predictability more than “we’ll see how it goes.” - Create a healthier leadership mindset.
A quadrennial plan reduces panic-driven decisions and anchors the team to something bigger than the current quarter.
Think of this forecast like training for an Olympic cycle:
You define the finish line, then reverse-engineer the path, year by year, quarter by quarter.
How the 12-Month + Quadrennial System Works Together
Used properly, the two forecasts integrate:
- Quadrennial forecast: Strategic direction, long-term targets, major investments, market position.
- 12-month forecast: Operational execution, cash discipline, hiring, pricing, and daily decision-making.
One sets the horizon line.
The other gets you through the next 50 metres of chop.
When both are aligned, your business becomes powerful, stable, and predictable—even in an unpredictable place like Vancouver Island.
Why Vancouver Island SMEs, Specifically, Need This
Running a business in BC is not the same as running one in Ontario or Texas.
Island businesses face:
- Slower shipping and supply chain delays
- Higher labour costs
- Seasonal tourism and construction cycles
- Tight cash flow windows (especially for inventory-heavy companies)
- High cost of capital
- Limited local workforce
- Climate-related disruptions
Forecasting helps you play the game with your eyes open.
It turns chaos into clarity.
It accelerates growth.
And it makes your leadership life a whole lot lighter.
The Payoff: More Freedom, Less Stress, Higher Enterprise Value
When you forecast, you dont just build enterprise value, you gain something rare: freedom.
Freedom to make decisions without fear.
Freedom to hire and invest confidently.
Freedom to reduce stress and build a business that serves your life—not one that consumes it.
A Vancouver Island SME with a solid 12-month forecast and a four-year quadrennial forecast becomes:
- More profitable
- More resilient
- More valuable
- And far more enjoyable to run
Forecasting isn’t about predicting the future.
It’s about owning it.
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Adam Kreek and his team are on a mission to positively impact organizational cultures and leaders who make things happen.
He authored the bestselling business book, The Responsibility Ethic: 12 Strategies Exceptional People Use to Do the Work and Make Success Happen.
Want to increase your leadership achievement? Learn more about Kreek’s coaching here.
Want to book a keynote that leaves a lasting impact? Learn more about Kreek’s live event service here.